MRC Global InSight

Canada

In general, activity levels are improving across Canada, primarily driven by a return to pre-pandemic operations, active maintenance programs and increases in drilling activity. At the time of this writing, the Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil price is up more than 130% year-over-year.

The upstream sector in western Canada continues to experience a rise in drilling and completion activities with 34% of the drilling fleet currently active, as compared to only 12% during the same period in 2020. The latest reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that Canadian oil supply has increased modestly in August to 5.7 million bbls/d but was up 750,000 bbls/d year-over-year. Several operators have begun lifting their guidance for Q4 2021.4

Midstream capacity continues to increase with several pipelines either under construction or coming online in Q4 2021. This activity will further expand capacity throughout the country.

In the downstream sector, activity levels have risen from the lows seen in 2020 as maintenance and shutdown programs that were deferred come online and scheduled outages are completed.


Despite these supply chain impacts, capital spending forecasts for 2022 are predicted to rise...


Long term impacts from COVID-19 continue to be felt throughout the supply chain and all sectors across Canada. Material costs, lead times and logistical costs continue to increase. Despite these supply chain impacts, capital spending forecasts for 2022 are predicted to rise above the low levels experienced during the pandemic.

4. Canadian Oil Supply Increased In August; Record Expected By Year-End: IEA, https://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/article/2021/9/14/canadian-oil-supply-increased-in-august-record-exp/.